Here are my big, bold predictions about the outcome of the Aussie election in a fortnight…
1. The LNP will take the lower house.
2. Labor & the Greens will hold the upper house until mid-2017.
Showing My Working:
1. It appears a foregone conclusion that the LNP will take the lower house outright.
The latest Nielsen results point to at least a national 3% swing against the ALP, coinciding with a shift of at least ten seats from the ALP to the LNP Coalition.
2. The Senate, by design, lags behind voting, with half being replaced every three years on Jul 1, so there will be enough of a rump of Labor & Green senators to hold power until 2017.
The Senate has 76 seats, currently filled with 31 Labor & 9 Green senators, staring across the aisle at 33 LNP & two “rightist” smaller party reps, along with one unpredictable indie.
Antony Green’s Awesome Senate Results Calculator allow us to apply the Nielsen poll results across the country state by state, which show that there is a small chance two seats will flip – in Tassie & WA – from Labor to LNP. In this case, “lefties” will hold 38 of the senate’s 76 seats (29 Labor & 9 Greens) plus that independent. The best hope Abbot has of governing outright without compromise is to pick off a weak Labor senator, or pull preference deals in key states to try to steal votes away from the Greens.
Update: clarified & added link to senate rules.
