Here are my big, bold predictions about the outcome of the Aussie election in a fortnight…<\/p>\n
1. The LNP will take the lower house.<\/p>\n
2. Labor & the Greens will hold the upper house until mid-2017.<\/p>\n
Showing My Working:<\/p>\n
1. It appears a foregone conclusion that the LNP will take the lower house outright.<\/p>\n
The latest Nielsen results<\/a> point to at least a national 3% swing against the ALP, coinciding with a shift of at least ten seats from the ALP to the LNP Coalition.<\/p>\n 2. The Senate, by design, lags behind voting, with half being replaced every three years on Jul 1<\/a>, so there will be enough of a rump of Labor & Green senators to hold power until 2017.<\/p>\n The Senate has 76 seats, currently filled<\/a> with 31 Labor & 9 Green senators, staring across the aisle at 33 LNP & two “rightist” smaller party reps, along with one unpredictable indie.<\/p>\n Antony Green’s Awesome Senate Results Calculator<\/a> allow us to apply the Nielsen poll results across the country state by state, which show that there is a small chance two seats will flip – in Tassie & WA – from Labor to LNP. In this case, “lefties” will hold 38 of the senate’s 76 seats (29 Labor & 9 Greens) plus that independent. The best hope Abbot has of governing outright without compromise is to pick off a weak Labor senator, or pull preference deals in key states to try to steal votes away from the Greens.<\/p>\n Update: clarified & added link to senate rules.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Here are my big, bold predictions about the outcome of the Aussie election in a fortnight… 1. The LNP will take the lower house. 2. Labor & the Greens will hold the upper house until mid-2017. Showing My Working: 1. It appears a foregone conclusion that the LNP will take the lower house outright. The… Continue reading Election Predictions<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"activitypub_content_warning":"","activitypub_content_visibility":"","activitypub_max_image_attachments":4,"activitypub_interaction_policy_quote":"anyone","activitypub_status":"","footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1025","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bookreview","entry"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p1RxuW-gx","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gearfamily.net\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1025","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gearfamily.net\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gearfamily.net\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gearfamily.net\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gearfamily.net\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1025"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/gearfamily.net\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1025\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1035,"href":"https:\/\/gearfamily.net\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1025\/revisions\/1035"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gearfamily.net\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1025"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gearfamily.net\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1025"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gearfamily.net\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1025"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}